Mortgage Market Activity Set to Climb

The UK property market could be set to see a flurry of activity, as buyers spring into action following the winter months, driving an increase in mortgage lending that could last right through to autumn.

Analysis has been conducted on historic mortgage lending figures and how they differ across each seasonal period of the year.

The figures show that over the last two years, a total of £144.9bn has been lent during the winter months, equating to an average of £72.5bn.

However, as the temperature starts to creep up, so too does the total sum of lending seen across the mortgage sector.

Over the last two years, a total of £148bn has been lent during the spring months and while a 2.1% increase versus the winter months may not seem that significant, it equates to over £3bn more in mortgage lending, averaging just shy of £74bn per year.

This uplift in mortgage lending continues into the summer, with mortgage lending increasing by a notable 11.4% between the spring and summer seasons, before cooling by -0.7% between summer and Autumn.

But while the summer months may see the highest level of mortgage lending, it’s the spring season when the market is seeing the strongest growth in lending activity.

Over the last two years, the total sum lent during the spring months has increased at an average annual rate of 28.4%.

This is not only a considerably stronger rate of growth than both the winter (3.6%) and autumn (9.5%) months, but it has also out-paced the summer months with lending up by an average of 23.4% per year.

Jonathan Samuels, CEO of Octane Capital, the specialist property lending experts responsible for the market analysis, commented:

“With the exception of the initial Covid year when the industry was first placed into lockdown, the spring season traditionally marks a noticeable increase in mortgage market activity and we expect this year to be no different.

In fact, while the summer months tend to see a higher total sum lent, it’s the spring months that are seeing the largest increase in lending levels in terms of the year on year appetite shown by the nation’s homebuyers.

So while we’ve already seen a strong start to the year, all things considered, there’s a very good chance that come the summer, the current dip in mortgage market performance will be firmly behind us.”

Table shows the average annual change in mortgage lending seen across each season and the average and total two year figures
Period	Winter (£m)	Annual Change %	Spring (£m)	Annual Change %	Summer (£m)	Annual Change %	Autumn (£m)	Annual Change %
Dec 2016 – Nov 2017	£58,749	–	£60,243	–	£70,606	–	£69,931	–
Dec 2017 – Nov 2018	£61,348	4.4%	£62,848	4.3%	£72,905	3.3%	£71,122	1.7%
Dec 2018 – Nov 2019	£63,136	2.9%	£62,783	-0.1%	£70,034	-3.9%	£71,389	0.4%
Dec 2019 – Nov 2020	£66,216	4.9%	£48,187	-23.2%	£56,041	-20.0%	£71,837	0.6%
Dec 2020 – Nov 2021	£74,352	12.3%	£69,906	45.1%	£82,942	48.0%	£77,579	8.0%
Dec 2021 – Nov 2022	£70,553	-5.1%	£78,075	11.7%	£81,901	-1.3%	£86,070	10.9%
Average 2 years	£72,453	3.6%	£73,991	28.4%	£82,422	23.4%	£81,825	9.5%
Total 2 years	£144,905	6.5%	£147,981	62.0%	£164,843	46.1%	£163,649	19.8%

Table shows the difference in mortgage lending between each season and the average and total over the last two years
Period	Winter (£m)	< Change % >	Spring (£m)	< Change % >	Summer (£m)	< Change % >	Autumn (£m)
Dec 2016 – Nov 2017	£58,749	2.5%	£60,243	17.2%	£70,606	-1.0%	£69,931
Dec 2017 – Nov 2018	£61,348	2.4%	£62,848	16.0%	£72,905	-2.4%	£71,122
Dec 2018 – Nov 2019	£63,136	-0.6%	£62,783	11.5%	£70,034	1.9%	£71,389
Dec 2019 – Nov 2020	£66,216	-27.2%	£48,187	16.3%	£56,041	28.2%	£71,837
Dec 2020 – Nov 2021	£74,352	-6.0%	£69,906	18.6%	£82,942	-6.5%	£77,579
Dec 2021 – Nov 2022	£70,553	10.7%	£78,075	4.9%	£81,901	5.1%	£86,070
Average 2 years	£72,453	2.1%	£73,991	11.4%	£82,422	-0.7%	£81,825
Total 2 years	£144,905	2.1%	£147,981	11.4%	£164,843	-0.7%	£163,649