Mortgate Rates Optimism? - Property Notify

In the run-up to the Bank of England’s next interest rate decision, new data from HomeOwners Alliance reveals deep uncertainty among the British public about the future of mortgage rates. In a survey of 2,000 UK adults 37% say they expect mortgage rates to go up over the next 12 months.This expectation outpaces those who believe rates will hold steady (25%) or fall (16%). Meanwhile, 22% say they simply don’t know, reflecting broader economic anxiety and confusion.

“That more than a third of the public are bracing for further mortgage rate rises shows how fragile confidence remains. Uncertainty over the economic climate and what’s coming next does nothing for consumer confidence.” says Paula Higgins, CEO at the property advice website HomeOwners Alliance. “While the Bank of England weighs up its next move, millions are stuck in limbo, unsure whether to fix their mortgage now or hold out for a potential drop in rates.”

With the base rate decision imminent, this insight offers a snapshot of public sentiment, highlighting the broader anxiety that surrounds mortgage affordability today. Our advice to homeowners is to keep their mortgage under review. Check the date you’re due to remortgage. If it’s in the next six months, start the search now, lock in the best rate and keep this under review.
When it comes to first-time buyers, Paula Higgins, Chief Executive of Home Owners Allicance says,

It’s particularly worrying that those aspiring to own their first home are least optimistic about mortgage rates with almost half (49%) expecting mortgage rates to rise vs 37% overall. All the doom and gloom around the economy is actually clouding what is an improving mortgage market. First time buyers should explore their options; check what rates are doing. We keep our Mortgage Rate Predictions page regularly updated.

Survey details

The survey was carried out by Opinium online and figures are weighted and representative of all UK adults (aged 18+). Total sample size was 2,000 adults of which 1269 were homeowners and 474 were aspiring homeowners. Fieldwork 1-5 April 2025

Among UK adults overall, a third (37%) think mortgage rates will rise, 25% think they will stay the same, 16% think they will fall and 22% just don’t know.

Homeowners are slightly less likely than UK adults overall to expect mortgage rates to rise (32% vs 37%) and are more likely to expect mortgage rates to fall (21% vs 16%).
Among homeowners, those with a mortgage are even more likely to expect mortgage rates to fall (26% of mortgage holders vs 18% of homeowners who own outright expect a fall in rates).
Those aspiring to own their first home are least optimistic about mortgage rates with almost half (49%) expecting mortgage rates to rise vs 37% overall.